Showing posts with label economic growth policies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic growth policies. Show all posts

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Growing a productive urban economy

Density won’t do it
Suggestions that we can grow our economy by encouraging business into the CBD in the interests of innovation do not reflect the weight of experience.  Sure, higher order professions have tended to concentrate there, and become relatively more important as manufacturing, retailing, and distribution have decamped.  And in Auckland, at least, tertiary education has become a major player in the CBD.  University employment has boosted the scientific as well as education sector.
But much as introductions might be made and ideas swapped over coffee, the real capacity to bring innovation to fruition belongs in the workshops, laboratories, production lines, and sales office of real companies. 
Obvious as it may seem, we need more – and bigger – businesses to lead the way if Auckland is to grow through innovation and the resulting productivity gains.  This blog is about why this is so and how we might help.
Firm growth and local linkages
The argument reflects a long-standing interest in industry, but the principles also apply to things like financial services, software, and design. 
My most compelling experience is dated.  In the seventies I visited 120 firms in the emergent electronics industry in inner London (the heart of creativity according to the density gurus), outer London, and central Scotland.  What I learnt then still seems relevant today.
I wanted to know how businesses in different localities grow.  I examined where they made their purchases and where their markets were.  I was particularly interested in how much they depended on the local area to sustain their growth.[1]
The results were no surprise: the more successful firms depended least on their local area.  As higher value, higher growth firms expanded, though, they did strengthen reliance on their local workforce.  Critical local skills became embedded even as businesses became international in scope.  A commitment to and dependence on an established workforce became a key to maintaining the presence of innovative or high tech firms in an area.  This experience still rings true when we think about firms like Fisher and Paykel, Glidepath, and Rakon in Auckland today.
Growth firms are nevertheless highly likely to invest away from their home base.  By itself that’s no bad thing.  It may be the beginning of the end, though, if they cannot raise the finance locally.  As the weight of their equity shifts offshore, so their local presence becomes more tenuous.
The best outcome is probably when innovative and growing firms can be supported locally, generating local jobs, deepening local skills, and building local household and business income even as their business with the rest of the world grows.
And that’s where we seem to struggle in Auckland, despite some exceptions.  As firms succeed here they often cannot find the resources they need to grow and maintain their local roots. 
Relocating to grow
The companies I analysed all those years ago more or less sorted themselves out.  In Inner London there were still a few post-war innovators beavering away.  For the most part these had not grown much.  The real inner London success stories, the firms that had prospered, were largely gone.  They may have kept an office in the city but R & D, production, and distribution had moved elsewhere.
Elsewhere was outer London, or the new towns, villages, and cities in southeast England.  This included a world-leading electronics belt centred on Reading, an hour from the City of London. 
A key step in firm growth is the ability to relocate from small start-up premises.  Consequently, localities away from congested inner cities were where the real innovation was taking place.
The new firm nurseries
Where do new companies come from in the first instance?  It’s not coffee shops in the CBD and there aren’t too many enduring ideas sketched on beer coasters in inner city pubs.  Some – the exceptions – may be born of enthusiasts working in garages. 
Most new firms I found in the UK research were outside London.  Many had spun-off established companies.  This suggested one key to innovation: knowledgeable employees leaving firms to do it their way.  Often they spied opportunities in their former employment that the established business could not exploit – new processes or materials, new products or applications, or new markets. 
In some cases, existing businesses spun off their own new enterprises to exploit new opportunities outside existing operations. 
The rise of innovative, growth firms in low density areas outside London was hardly surprising.  Space was affordable, whether a start-up factory unit or land or premises for expansion.  Firms could attract staff because the living and commuting was easy.  Compared with London, costs were favourable .  And when they relocated, firms  tried to go where key staff could easily follow.
Later – in the late eighties -- I visited the Cambridge Technology Park some 90 minutes north of London.  This was a highly successful centre of innovation and investment.  A low density environment attracted innovative light industry to easily accessed sites on the fringes of a provincial city –itself a university centre – set in an attractive living environment. 
The dynamics behind Silicon Valley near San Francisco were similar.  Leading edge firms here have continued to spin off imitators and innovators in an area with room to expand and access to great living conditions.  Again, a key university, Stanford, is a contributor to ongoing success and business vitality.
The ingredients of a dynamic economy
This, then, is another key to a dynamic economy: the capacity of larger, older firms (and other institutions) to create the seed bed from which the new ones grow and expand in a continuous process of industry evolution - birth, growth, decline, and death. 
As a variation aside, the process of firm evolution today includes the take over and reconfiguration of the old and tired.  Under-performing businesses are acquired and their assets rationalised, potentially renewing creative energy.  Leaner businesses may result, with new capital, a new sense of direction, and more vigorous management. 
(Of course, a takeover may also be a financial play, with assets stripped, pumped, and packaged for a share market float, with precious little value added).
We need the places -- and space -- where old firms can operate without incurring endlessly increasing costs, growth firms can expand, and new firms come into being.  What we cannot expect to do is conjure new enterprise out of an entrepreneurial vacuum.  And we definitely shouldn’t seek to straitjacket new firms and old within an inner city environment.
What can we do?
One reason for Auckland’s under-performance may be that our planning has acted inadvertently against sustained business renewal and growth.  Plans have may have over-focused on the inner city.  Planners have concentrated on how and where we can live and failed to plan for where we might work.  We dragged our feet in the zoning of substantial areas of affordable business land.  as a result, we have pushed up the cost and pushed down the appeal of Auckland as a place for growing firms. 
One simple thing we could do is make sure that there is plenty of industrial land available.  This should be well connected, preferably removed from the congestion of inner Auckland.  There are a few good opportunities on the books of the council at the moment.  Large parcels at Silverdale, Massey North, Drury, and Pokeno are in various stages of planning, for example.  Bringing these plans to fruition will lift the prospect of Auckland participating in a productivity-led recovery.  Tying the areas together – and to the ports and airport – through the motorway system will provide the connections they need locally and internationally. 
There are other issues to be addressed.  We could do with a focus in education on the skills, culture, and aptitude to make things happen.  Our universities must continue to connect individually and jointly with diverse vocational needs across the business board.  And let’s continue to explore how to attract capital to invest in expanding firms within the region.
I am not assuming we can compete with the cheap land and labour of Asia, or match the host of engineers that Asian universities turn out each year.  But when people with the right skills and background do come along, let’s ensure that they encounter an environment that supports entrepreneurship and growth, and not leave them doodling and dreaming in inner city coffee shops.  And let’s do what we can to make sure that leaving town is no longer the mark of a successful firm.


[1]               Sure, it was a long time ago.  But the SAME issues keep turning up.  The results were published in 1982 by Cambridge University Press in McDermott P and Taylor M Industrial Organisation and Location. 


Friday, November 12, 2010

Agglomeration - diverting attention from the basics

A bit more on agglomeration economies
In my last posting I pointed out that the advantages of business concentration are not evident in the relative performance of Auckland in New Zealand or Sydney in Australia.  Even if agglomeration economies benefit individual firms or sectors, they are not being translated into superior regional growth.
Of course this could be a measurement problem.  Perhaps productivity gains in the major cities are such that they achieve superior output growth even as employment performance falls behind smaller centres. 
And of course, the gross figures used hide the "composition effect": history means cities are made up of different mixes of business.  Cities with an abundance of growth industries do better than those with too many sunset industries. In this way cities go through cycles of growth, stagnation, and decline just like products or firms.  Maybe agglomeration economies exist but Auckland happens to have an “inferior” mix of activities compared with the rest of New Zealand or metropolitan Australia.
Sounding a Warning
So I have done some more analysis, summarised below.  Because it is little dense – and most of this stuff on agglomeration is – here is a summary of my conclusions. 
There is no evidence at all that business sectors have been advantaged by being concentrated in Auckland over the past decade (whether or not individual firms are).  In fact, there may be a (weak) tendency for location here to be a disadvantage: growth prospects might be better for the less concentrated sectors and for activities located outside Auckland.
This raises questions over policies promoting business concentration in Auckland, especially policies that presume higher land use densities will generate higher productivity and therefore growth.
A focus on such policies may have deflected attention from the basics: the cost of doing business in Auckland, its attractiveness to investment, and its attractiveness to skilled people.  It means we may have underplayed the diseconomies of agglomeration, the environmental, social and economic costs associated with boosting densities on ageing infrastructure, for example.  These arise from congested and costly services prone to disruption (including but not limited to transport), inefficient labour markets (because of the commuting distances and housing costs, for example), and overpriced land. These may be he areas most in need of policy attention.
Agglomeration economies offer Auckland no silver bullet. Rather, such things as the quality of labour, the quality of services and infrastructure, the quality of investment, and the quality of life all require at once a more responsible, responsive, and perhaps light-handed approach for Auckland to prosper.
Data on individual sectors
I have explored whether agglomeration in Auckland has conferred advantages on business by examining whether individual business sectors concentrated in the region (1) do better than other sectors less concentrated there and (2) do better there than the same sectors elsewhere in New Zealand. 
For this I analysed employment data (from the Statistics New Zealand website) for sectors defined at the four digit level of the New Zealand and Australian Standard Industrial Classification. I looked at the years 2000 to 2007 (a period of sustained growth) and 2007 to 2010 (a period of employment decline).  Primary sectors (agriculture, forestry, fishing, and mining) were omitted as they are not urban activities. Sectors with fewer than 200 employees in Auckland in 2010 were also omitted.[1] 
For each of the remaining 168 sectors I calculated a score known as the “Location Quotient” (or LQ) indicating how heavily they were concentrated in Auckland in 2000, and another for 2007.  A LQ of 1.0 means that the share of a sector in Auckland is the same as the region’s share of all New Zealand’s economic activity (measured as employment).  Anything over 1.0 means the sector is concentrated in the region.  Anything less than 1.0 means it is under-represented. 
The proposition
If a sector is concentrated in Auckland relative to the rest of the country this suggests that firms in the region should reap economic benefits from shared services, skills, supplies, and information. Consequently, these sectors should outperform other sectors in Auckland that are less concentrated and, more importantly, should do better in Auckland than elsewhere in the country.
Put simply, we would expect a high LQ to be associated with faster growth rates in the city. 

The big picture
To explore this proposition the 168 sectors are plotted on two axes in the following diagram. The horizontal axis measures their concentration in 2000 (increasing from left to right).  Anything with a LQ of more than around 1.3 can be considered significantly concentrated in Auckland.  58 sectors fell into this category, and another 30 had some degree of concentration (a LQ between 1.1 and 1.3).

The vertical axis measures their employment performance relative to the rest of New Zealand.  The higher the score, the better the sector performed in Auckland compared with the same sector outside the region.

Guess what? There is no relationship evident between concentration in Auckland in 2000 and how sectors performed over the next ten years. Sure, a few were concentrated and have done well (in the upper right area of the graph), but plenty of others have were concentrated and have done badly (lower right).  Equally, a number of the sectors that are less concentrated in Auckland have nevertheless performed well (upper left). 
Concentration and growth – or decline?
But there's more. If we want to measure the strength of any relationship between sectors concentrated in Auckland and their growth, we can estimate the correlation coefficient between the two sets of scores.  The correlation coefficient would be close to 1.0 if concentration does increase the likelihood that a sector concentrated in Auckland will perform better there than elsewhere. If the score is close to zero no such relationship exists.  If it is close to -1.0, then concentration in Auckland is actually associated with under-performance, the converse of what agglomeration theory and policies would lead us to expect.
A number of coefficients have been calculated to see if the level of concentration in Auckland in 2000 and 2007 is associated with how employment changes subsequently.  They have also been calculated separately for different groups of sectors.  The results are given in the following table.
They provide no proof that agglomeration economies favoured Auckland employment at all.  If anything, employment performance in Auckland over the decade tended to be worse than the rest of New Zealand (r=-0.22) if a sector was concentrated in Auckland the city at the beginning of the decade, particularly in commercial services (r=-0.31).  Although these relationships are weak, the point is that they are in the wrong direction!   
And the post 2007 shakeup had a tendency to be more severe among Auckland businesses in the industrial and distribution sectors, shown in the second part of the table.
The Correlation between Sector Concentration in Auckland and Employment Growth, 2000-2010

All Sectors
Industry
Distribution
All Services
Commercial Services
(1) Relationship with 2000 LQ



Auckland Growth 2000-07
-0.09
-0.07
-0.09
-0.04
0.07
Auckland Growth  2007-10
-0.16
-0.07
-0.24
-0.11
-0.11
Relative Growth 2000-07
-0.18
0.05
-0.12
-0.35
-0.35
Relative Growth 2000-10
-0.22
-0.08
-0.26
-0.27
-0.31
(2) Relationship with 2007 LQ





Auckland Growth 2000-07
-0.14
0.08
-0.22
-0.20
0.01
Relative Growth 2007-10
-0.15
-0.21
-0.33
0.06
0.06

Note: Relative growth is Auckland employment growth rate minus rest of New Zealand employment growth rate
Proving the existence of agglomeration economies has become a major past-time for academics and policy analysts.  It’s all pretty arcane stuff.  Even the simple enough analysis outlined here contains limits and qualifications. 
But the results raise serious doubts over the value of policies that rely on the benefits of agglomeration to boost growth.  Or, worse, policies that manipulate land use to increase employment densities in the belief that this will somehow advantage businesses. These results, at least, suggest that at best such policies have no effect and at worst could disadvantage the region’s economy.

It may well be time to address the fundamentals about what makes a city an attractive place to invest and live in over and above aspirations to be the best simply by being the biggest. 



[1] There were 19 sectors with less than 200 people employed in 2000, accounting for just 1,420 jobs.