tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post371964019263311357..comments2024-01-14T06:16:50.475+13:00Comments on Cities Matter: Ageing in the CityPhil McDermotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06869744647213369964noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-37974392962647679232022-01-08T22:00:23.702+13:002022-01-08T22:00:23.702+13:00First time reading this blog thanks for sharingFirst time reading this blog thanks for sharingKyla Curtishttps://www.kylacurtis.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-27418247664397900902012-01-11T15:21:29.378+13:002012-01-11T15:21:29.378+13:00Mark, we looked at buyer preferences and resident ...Mark, we looked at buyer preferences and resident experiences of medium density housing, as well as some of the demographics and economics in a report to CHRANZ last year. There is fair bit of paper to wade through, but it was a fair attempt (I think) to get some evidence together and provide guidance about how to increase the uptake. There are certainly some entrenched behavioural and attitudinal barriers to getting acceptance of higher densities. But there are also significant economic and practical barriers, including planning rules, decisions, and processes that seem inconsistent with policy objectives. <br />The material can be found at the following address:<br /><br />http://www.chranz.co.nz/publications.html#sponsorPhil McDermotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06869744647213369964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-90813186479777288912012-01-11T10:22:44.834+13:002012-01-11T10:22:44.834+13:00From what I hear, I don't think Council staff ...From what I hear, I don't think Council staff have really engaged with the retirement industry.<br /><br />if I was them, I'd be trying to understand the industry's economics - ie the cost the market will bear, and any research on markets willingness to move to apartments.<br /><br />In the inner suburbs it's hard to see them getting land parcels for traditional villages - so I'd see a demand developing for quality apartments in say Mt Albert/Mt eden / Remuera - but can that work economically? ie given cost structures in those locations and the double m2 cost of apartments. Also with need to free up capital, what will people pay anyway?<br /><br />Also, the industry has relied on capital growth and buy pack structures - would this ever work for apartments with no capital gains?<br /><br />I said in my submission to Council that aging population was key issue, and every business was thinking about it, but the draft plan pretty much ignored it.<br /><br />The impacts could be huge, if we end up losing a great % of population in areas for the next 30-40 years, rather than increasing, this would mean an even greater need for new housing. If all the current 4-5 person family homes go down to 2, then one as people stay put rather than moving and freeing up bedrooms.<br /><br />I looked at Kingsland census figures, and despite growth in apartments / children, the population is the same as 20yrs ago. As an area it went from large flats (4-5 people), to couples renovating, ie a halving in some cases, and then children coming in. If those people stay after the children move on, it will again half the population....Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-80639836072661438112012-01-10T18:54:32.223+13:002012-01-10T18:54:32.223+13:00Another excellent and well rounded post, Phil.
A...Another excellent and well rounded post, Phil. <br /><br />Also we can't forget the possible impact of automated transport technology on location demand for old people, because many of them can't drive (or will make plans on the fact that they soon might not be able to). So this could have a major impact on the development of demand as well. It's just another spanner-in-the-works variable making it impossible to predict future demand on a detailed level.Andrew D Atkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04492591375757227409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-56566129728288509882012-01-10T15:13:22.465+13:002012-01-10T15:13:22.465+13:00Again development economics will be a big constrai...Again development economics will be a big constraint to more older Aucklanders living in the CBD. <br />There is a very limited market for 3 bedroom, 100+ sq m apartments in the CBD. Most retirees will not want to live in shoeboxes.<br />Witness how long it has taken to move apartments at the Stamford:<br /><br />http://stamfordresidences.co.nz/apartments-for-sale/two-bedroom-deluxe.html<br /><br />Sure, these are top end, so a rather extreme example.<br /><br />But realistically building an apartment today in the CBD circa 100 sq m it would (dependant on quality, location etc. of course) need to sell for, best guess, upwards of 700-800K minimum<br /><br />now, if part of the logic behind retirees "downsizing" is for them to free up capital for retirement, then it doesn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that the number of Aucklanders with $1 million plus properties who also want to downsize to live in the CBD is fairly small. <br /><br />The combination of the GFC, finance company busts, oversupply, negative perception around inner city apartments, large construction cost increases in the mid / late 2000s and minimum planning requirements (minimum apartment sizes etc) adopted around 2006 has pretty much killed apartments in the CBD, at least in the short to medium term<br /><br />I suspect we will still see some limited high end apartment construction in high amenity locations (eg. near waterfront) but generally we will see very little.<br /><br />So like Phil I foresee that most ageing boomers will either want to stay in their existing homes as long as possible, or move to retirement villages. I'm not that convinced that many will even look to downsize to smaller townhouses in their neighbourhoods - often buying a newish townhouse will be a similar if not higher price than a detached house on a section in the suburbs. <br /><br />No simple answers!Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-20609885272396410222012-01-10T11:35:57.358+13:002012-01-10T11:35:57.358+13:00Hi Mark. I agree entirley. I have done a bit of ...Hi Mark. I agree entirley. I have done a bit of work on the distribution of retirement villages and will post it in the next day or so (I will also respond to your query on education services in the CBD). <br />The retirement village sector is a real success story - the companies generally seem to understand the market, delivering amenity and achieving higher residential densities at the same time. My understanding is that they also draw people mainly from within a limited radius, or at least from the same geographic sector (north, east, west, etc). This may be why there are so few in the central city (even taking into account a lack of suitable sites.)Phil McDermotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06869744647213369964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7011655232093163642.post-4673903025903520622012-01-10T10:50:00.660+13:002012-01-10T10:50:00.660+13:00Good post.
The other issue to consider is the ris...Good post.<br /><br />The other issue to consider is the rise in own your own unit retirement villages. I suspect this relates to high growth in the south. So far these have used large areas of land, ground floor units, with central facilities. From people I know it's worked out very well - personal freedom, but medical backup if needed. In fact there are stories of late 50's going in early.<br /><br />but where will land come from for next ones? Can they move to an apartment complex in traditional suburbs like Mt Albert? Council needs to understand this industry for its 30 year plan. talking to older residents they have roots in a suburb and want to stay there or head beachside eg Coromandel etc. <br /><br />Growth can be achieved by releasing unused space in 4-5 bedroom houses - as long as quality can be provided.<br /><br />Most will be forced to release capital tied up in housing - especialy given current over-vaulation, and NZ problem of too much capital in housing - so this becomes key 30 year issue.<br /><br />I don't see CBD having any real impact on housing an aging population. There are basic compatibility issues re 15,000 students and retired people. Also our CBD is mainly education, and has limited cultural appeal. It won't have a real mixed use to it, that may appeal to the retired.Marknoreply@blogger.com